As Donald Trump celebrates his 80th birthday, a state-by-state map of his approval rating reveals a familiar partisan divide, but with a crucial twist: the margins are shrinking. This map, crafted from rolling polling data, offers a nuanced view of Trump's popularity, highlighting the erosion of his support across the country.
Trump's approval rating is underwater in most states, with a net approval rating of negative across much of the battleground map. This is a stark contrast to the start of his second term, where he enjoyed positive margins in many of these states. The sharpest declines are seen in Kentucky, Montana, and Idaho, where Trump's support has plummeted by 27, 24, and 23 points, respectively.
What's particularly interesting is the shift in traditionally strong Republican states. States like Wyoming, North Dakota, and Alabama, which were once solid Trump strongholds, now have much slimmer margins. For instance, Wyoming, which had a net approval rating of +47 at the start of his second term, now stands at +25. This erosion is not limited to deep red states; even traditionally competitive states like Florida, Ohio, and Texas are now net negative.
The national demographic breakdown helps explain these trends. Trump's weakest numbers come from younger voters, with just 21% approval among adults aged 18 to 34. Among independents and women, disapproval rates are also high, at 64% and 65%, respectively. Education is another fault line, with postgraduates showing a stark 71% disapproval rate.
This data suggests that Trump's support is not as robust as it once was, especially in traditionally strong Republican states. The map's tightening margins indicate a more competitive political landscape, where even small shifts in voter sentiment can have significant implications. This is particularly intriguing given the White House's emphasis on Trump's 2024 election victory as a mandate from nearly 80 million voters.
In my opinion, this map reveals a more nuanced and complex political landscape than the White House's narrative suggests. While Trump's support remains strong in certain regions, the overall trend is one of erosion and narrowing margins. This could have significant implications for his future political prospects and the broader political landscape in the United States.
